Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e4f0a7bbfd0ab8af4384d6feebae50479061bc725732257839e9e331917875
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 9c | 590.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 481.72$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 74c | 478.58$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.7 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 3c | 437.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 35c | 421.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 42c | 405.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.79 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 390.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f59dbacked No | 52c | 386.83$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 28c | 377.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.19 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 367.74$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 43c | 364.34$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a5…f896backed Yes | 56c | 356.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 339.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 53c | 329.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 50c | 315.23$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.52 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 309.63$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…38b3backed Yes | 33c | 304.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 52c | 289.43$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 54c | 283.38$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 14c | 274.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 274.1$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 77c | 258.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 250.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 46c | 248.84$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…314cbacked Yes | 51c | 244.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 58c | 244.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…02d2backed Yes | 54c | 240.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 51c | 233.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…722ebacked Yes | 37c | 223.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 69c | 214.21$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…d740backed Yes | 29c | 212.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 207.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 20c | 200.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 77c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 51c | 196.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 195.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 30c | 186.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 49c | 181.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 181.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 44c | 180.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 18c | 175.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 42c | 172.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 170.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 157.91$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…f7a7backed Yes | 46c | 150.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 149.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 54c | 147.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…017ebacked Yes | 48c | 144.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 51c | 135.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 134.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 129.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 29c | 129$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 128.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…06f8backed Yes | 43c | 123.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 80c | 123.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 120.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…ccdebacked Yes | 40c | 119.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 30c | 118$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc90…f8edbacked No | 51c | 117.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 116.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 51c | 114$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…485cbacked Yes | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 43c | 110.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 50c | 110.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…6a80backed No | 80c | 107.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…d35bbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1896…0f63backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…4b1dbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 74c | 99.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…8d25backed Yes | 56c | 98.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…d0f1backed Yes | 44c | 97.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 96.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 96.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 53c | 88.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 23c | 88.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 84.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 43c | 82.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 42c | 82.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 45c | 80.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 77.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 66c | 71.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 71.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 57c | 70.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd313…c026backed Yes | 31c | 68.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 51c | 66.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 45c | 66.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 39c | 64.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 47c | 63.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 24c | 62.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.