Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5a92d7744e078e2effaa1709fb39ecb8ce5c5a50e2e2bbad4e7e2e09d1d1daa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,029$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 19c | 588.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked No | 78c | 523.5$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 38c | 318.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.98 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 276.6$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 36c | 225.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 206.89$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 42c | 160$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 145.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 8c | 144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 71c | 141.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 11c | 116.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 100.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 38c | 100.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 21c | 94.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 65c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 81.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 81.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 76.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 58c | 70.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 61c | 64.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 62.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…c5dbbacked No | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 59.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 74c | 50.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 42c | 38.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 34.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 48c | 30.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 28.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 26.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 55c | 23.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.