Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f4483a9b809a3ab525f3f7e465ac22e3bc18e8cd2b0d9f7a458d51b211428eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 73c | 693.82$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.82 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 46c | 448.31$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.24 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 271.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 267.97$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 233.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 38c | 229.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.85 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 144.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 144.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 142.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 37c | 141.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 77c | 131.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 26c | 131$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.64 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 80c | 125.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 44c | 107.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 39c | 101.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 37c | 100.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…0e80backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d59…f513backed Yes | 73c | 92.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 91.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 53c | 89.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 56c | 86.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 86.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 29c | 85.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 84.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 80.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 20c | 73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 28c | 66.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 61c | 65.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed No | 44c | 59.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…9ab2backed Yes | 73c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 55.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 54.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 50c | 53.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 52.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 40.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 47c | 37.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 37.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 33.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 33.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 59c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 32.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 60c | 26.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…589cbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 74c | 22.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 21.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…064fbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 75c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…a54ebacked Yes | 76c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 69c | 17.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…fc63backed No | 70c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.