Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0cc8672f3b3a1c2b23cf36d1047d3ab705cea251ed6bbd77f6eb919170b3ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8473…cc2dbacked No | 1c | 1,096$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 68c | 864.21$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.36 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 569.4$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 52c | 512.96$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.56 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 505$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 414.73$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 387.79$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 51c | 385.74$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.72 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 66c | 352.34$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 32c | 305.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 52c | 300$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 282.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 274$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 259.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 250.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 36c | 243.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 34c | 221.22$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 53c | 203.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 49c | 201.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 46c | 200.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.69 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 47c | 181.77$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…4db5backed Yes | 69c | 173.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 49c | 171.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 168.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 54c | 157.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 154.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 150.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.02 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…aeabbacked Yes | 74c | 148.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 146.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 40c | 139.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 32c | 135.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 51c | 133.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 53c | 132.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 39c | 128.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 39c | 121.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 34c | 120.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 30c | 115.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 53c | 111.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 109.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 106$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 105.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 80c | 101.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 37c | 97.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 97.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 42c | 91.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 89.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 47c | 88.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 35c | 88.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 45c | 85.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 53c | 85.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 81.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 80.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 79.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 73.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 50c | 72.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 71.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 50c | 70.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 46c | 68.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 52c | 65.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 54c | 63.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 63c | 63.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 57.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…f457backed No | 58c | 54.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 43c | 54.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 34c | 54.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…4a26backed Yes | 72c | 51.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 55c | 50.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 43c | 50.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 40c | 50.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…6f5abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2823…10c5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…1702backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 49c | 49.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 52c | 47.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 45c | 47.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.