Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89de23488fd7b24565c2120b7478062e06e1db9b517b8ff8e9233b19af5a1141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 16c | 2,078$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.2 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 13c | 1,102$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.13 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,013$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 582.81$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 3c | 398.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 343.26$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 306.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e03…6ac2backed Yes | 6c | 295.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 19c | 271.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 270$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 261.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 23c | 229.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 15c | 210$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 198.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 177.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 171.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 143.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 17c | 142.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed No | 73c | 140.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 20c | 126.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 125.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 124.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 78c | 110.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 12c | 99.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 34c | 98.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 16c | 98.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 94.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 14c | 87.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 65.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 59.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 24c | 57.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…88e0backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 35.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 76c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…1d95backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.