Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79f3f8a1d1b9acf38b99296a9705ecdbe8f2d87defdc3144b48078ade78891ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,673$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 47c | 1,393$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.69 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 76c | 1,201$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.78 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 831.18$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 11c | 724.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 22c | 546.34$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 543.73$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 543.25$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 469$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 21c | 449.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 39c | 422.77$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.94 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 421.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 24c | 344.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 24c | 343.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 66c | 304.29$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 291.84$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…4db5backed Yes | 40c | 281.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 28c | 248.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 42c | 227.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 38c | 222.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 208.82$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 197.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 189.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 185.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 55c | 182.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 179.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 59c | 176.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 26c | 174.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 167.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 166.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 164.39$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 73c | 161.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 161.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 159.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 24c | 154$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 63c | 148.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 147.26$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…fa71backed Yes | 35c | 144.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 24c | 139$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 70c | 132.77$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 132.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 21c | 129.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 126.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 35c | 126.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 24c | 125.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 70c | 124.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 118.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 118$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 62c | 116.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 26c | 115.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 26c | 112.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked Yes | 21c | 104.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 75c | 101.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 101.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 36c | 99.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 97.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 21c | 97.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 42c | 96.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 95.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…4a26backed Yes | 32c | 94.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 22c | 92.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 30c | 90.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 75c | 89.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 61c | 89.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 88.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 87.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 62c | 81.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 24c | 76.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 68c | 73.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 34c | 71.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 69.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 68.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 68.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 78c | 67.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 69c | 67.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 31c | 65.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 27c | 64.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 55c | 64.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 65c | 63.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 60.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…f879backed Yes | 18c | 59.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 34c | 58.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 28c | 57.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 29c | 55.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 43c | 53.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 30c | 50.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.