TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,239

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes27c2,673$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.654,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes47c1,393$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.6989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No76c1,201$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.7831043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c831.18$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.394,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes11c724.63$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7120231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes22c546.34$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0143238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c543.73$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.983,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes34c543.25$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.682,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c469$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.865,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes21c449.41$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7410834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes39c422.77$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9473927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes30c421.42$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.631,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes24c344.92$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8726828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes24c343.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.396829.4%20 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No66c304.29$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3765625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No72c291.84$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.772,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf012…4db5backed Yes40c281.67$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.13520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes28c248.02$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6434624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes42c227.37$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.551,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes38c222.62$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0117838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c208.82$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.568,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No72c197.52$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.041,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes23c189.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No74c185.76$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.171,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes55c182.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes21c179.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3719022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No59c176.46$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes26c174.87$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.625735.1%20 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes39c167.34$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes18c166.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.486226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c164.39$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.242,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No73c161.81$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8926067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No68c161.81$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.291,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes33c159.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes24c154$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.611,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No63c148.92$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.646053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c147.26$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.64,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x537e…fa71backed Yes35c144.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes24c139$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8254857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No70c132.77$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1143859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c132.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb664…b752backed Yes21c129.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.534344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No77c126.96$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5842976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes35c126.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447050%35 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes24c125.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4310834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No70c124.54$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes29c118.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.823,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes34c118$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.91,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c118$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No62c116.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7338258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes26c115.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9966926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes26c112.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1117536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…792abacked Yes21c104.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No75c101.79$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9539159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c101.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.992,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes36c99.69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.951637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No57c97.7$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes21c97.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes42c96.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.551,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No75c95.64$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb653…4a26backed Yes32c94.13$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes22c92.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4618033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes30c90.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No75c89.73$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0441258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed No61c89.17$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8711438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No70c88.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.72,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No36c88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c87.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.811,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No62c81.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1421338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes24c76.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.423145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No65c75$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.317555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3526738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No68c73.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6224370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f51…8b09backed Yes34c71.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0314638.4%56 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c69.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c68.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No70c68.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.512,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No78c67.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9438758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No69c67.43$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1639157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes31c65.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.234067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes27c64.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.311343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…b923backed Yes55c64.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.577440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x828b…87a6backed No65c63.46$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.217441.9%31 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.641,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No43c60.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7e03…f879backed Yes18c59.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid+21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…fae1backed Yes34c58.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes28c57.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1531219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Yes29c55.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes43c53.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9932352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes30c50.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.315837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0734934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011344.2%50 W · 63 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed No67c49.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5211138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No79c49.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.512068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No64c49.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.