Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24bab684d261179679d328a99264b4bd30392c2ea930c9f838aba7640397999b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 346.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 268.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 234.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 166.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 143.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 56c | 113.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 32c | 89.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 20c | 88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…4edbbacked Yes | 64c | 83.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 79.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 67c | 74.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 79c | 73.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 43c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 49c | 53.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 38c | 51.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 66c | 45.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 75c | 44.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 34c | 42.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 40.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 36.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 32.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 47c | 30.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 80c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 18.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.