Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92b0939f575eb1e5850fe1e34b52d0740ec548a3c295ea622c806a6b1d4c8c82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0597…5265backed Yes | 74c | 944.88$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 579.53$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 17c | 559.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 12c | 509.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 22c | 372.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 306.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 14c | 242.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 226.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 25c | 195$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 29c | 154.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 15c | 153.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 61c | 135.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2f…c23ebacked Yes | 77c | 131$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 22c | 119.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 71c | 115.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 35c | 115.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 54c | 112.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 74c | 106.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed Yes | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 62c | 91.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 15c | 90.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 80c | 87.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 75.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed No | 37c | 66.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 24c | 66.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 35c | 65.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed Yes | 68c | 58.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 66c | 56.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 46c | 55.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 49c | 54.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked Yes | 70c | 51.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 34c | 48.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 36c | 36.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 75c | 34.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 62c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed No | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 67c | 31.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 66c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 64c | 30.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 28.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 66c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…7b7ebacked Yes | 67c | 28.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 61c | 27.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…a1febacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 66c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…e54fbacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 80c | 15.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.