Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23bd67cbb8088445aa6b2107db30fb4831d3e8eb5aff862dcdc172597cbc311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 347.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 34c | 343.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 296.91$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 294$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 47c | 146.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 30c | 142.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 65c | 133.63$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 70c | 125.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 51c | 115.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 41c | 103.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 53c | 94.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 45c | 83.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 83.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 71c | 69.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 48c | 62.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 71c | 61.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 58c | 56.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…f77dbacked No | 24c | 55.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 23c | 54.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 27c | 54.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 51.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 49.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 62c | 48.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 48.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 48.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 58c | 47.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 48c | 46.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 45c | 40.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 67c | 39.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 71c | 37.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 70c | 35.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 42c | 35.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 52c | 33.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 46c | 32.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…70c2backed Yes | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…8d06backed Yes | 47c | 32.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 32.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 31.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 45c | 31.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1c…c73bbacked Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 57c | 30.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 76c | 30.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 54c | 27.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 65c | 27.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 53c | 21.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 67c | 20.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…aba9backed Yes | 74c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…e150backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 71c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.