Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb060148061b907d88e02d51ebf0aee57874fa03d48159125990672084bc9a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 10c | 801.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 315.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.07 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 200.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 191.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 7c | 167.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 31c | 158.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 155.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 127.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…a948backed Yes | 35c | 114.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 13c | 106.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 96.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 94.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 83.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 74.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 66.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c9ebacked Yes | 19c | 58.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 52.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 51.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 33c | 44.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 66c | 43.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 40.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 77c | 39.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 74c | 28.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 69c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 74c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.