Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5dfe98aef03fae1ee9226604854f33f4d2bc73bfade35407298a3ef43e1411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 804.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 461.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 74c | 395.09$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 47c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.73 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 193.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 60c | 190.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 42c | 155.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 148.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 66c | 144.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 13c | 138.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 13c | 124.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 123.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 20c | 114.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 104.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 11c | 104.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 99.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 17c | 86.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…70c2backed Yes | 17c | 86.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 21c | 69.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 28c | 58.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…8d06backed Yes | 34c | 52.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 20c | 52.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 50.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 58c | 49.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 57c | 48.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 47.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 46.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 46.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 40.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 80c | 37.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 27c | 37.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 36c | 35.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 35.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 31.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 58c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 80c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.