Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76a6867479403cf681b3dbfe449d0b64de45c2f83e8bde7752801c10f00d92bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 18c | 273.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 54c | 256.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 5c | 210.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 200.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 149.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 57c | 122.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 52c | 114.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 105.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 43c | 83.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 57c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…81f2backed Yes | 33c | 70.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 66.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 59.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 40c | 54.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 54.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 42c | 51.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 48c | 49.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 44c | 47.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 56c | 44.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 44c | 44.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 42.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 56c | 38.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 37.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 62c | 37.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 52c | 36.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 56c | 31.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 55c | 31.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 55c | 28.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 50c | 28.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 54c | 25.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…bdddbacked Yes | 51c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9540…9f9abacked Yes | 51c | 21.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 57c | 19.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.