TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c6,659$5,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.4764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes45c6,064$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.9438237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No37c4,997$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.5238247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No15c4,570$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.0632243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No34c4,319$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.3522333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No70c4,000$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,781.7913850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes71c3,781$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.2827643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No61c3,295$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.9737740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No15c2,882$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.346825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes62c2,400$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.884645.7%21 W · 25 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No46c1,892$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.7440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes71c1,775$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.2225339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84b9…28d2backed No1c1,617$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes79c1,497$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.7111334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No2c1,404$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9426619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No64c1,400$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89635347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes53c1,400$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65816743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x20eb…bc89backed Yes74c1,343$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2694…610bbacked Yes68c1,143$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7f…ca15backed No44c1,135$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes32c1,019$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.944820.8%10 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28035355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes79c947.42$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7521034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes47c938.32$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.3214227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed Yes61c906.51$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.8615541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f3…ae51backed No50c899.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.995054%27 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89c8…ee9dbacked No28c898.84$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes69c875.32$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.1745843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No39c866.99$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.527233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No2c851.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.33717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No23c822.63$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.729254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7767…2096backed Yes62c812.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+451.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb63e…76d7backed Yes72c799.98$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.991952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No38c795.47$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0315436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes48c775.14$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.348633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No37c749.97$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.4919056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8278…22a1backed Yes55c735.86$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.867243.1%31 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Yes49c720$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.28159.3%48 W · 33 L+11.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No46c685.25$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.7367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No58c673.96$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.154843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No44c662.3$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.698833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b9…5626backed Yes59c603.85$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.542045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No26c600$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15636227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No67c600$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4047350.7%37 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No68c600$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40828750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No39c543.49$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes68c542.51$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.0677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes60c538.39$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.5556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No38c519.47$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.48747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed No73c517$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.1711859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2257356.2%41 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90a3…23ccbacked Yes64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No68c499.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3405149%25 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No6c498.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6436634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked Yes80c496.44$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.063450%17 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes61c493.44$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.4447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes46c474.06$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.0820617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc038…2c07backed Yes64c469.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.162540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked No22c460$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.622227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked No35c422.9$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508017.5%14 W · 66 L-9.1wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-47.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d1e…8b40backed Yes64c405.1$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.13754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+44.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No41c404.31$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5312441.1%51 W · 73 L-14.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked No70c396.59$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.43461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes50c396.37$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.046038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc804…c783backed Yes42c367.44$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.12850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed No73c360$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.84645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75a9…c2debacked Yes71c351.5$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No30c342.41$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.452236.4%8 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+191.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed No31c337.6$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.787627.6%21 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28a3…869ebacked Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.332857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd104…7c02backed No46c323.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8910359.2%61 W · 42 L+16.6wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+48%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd90f…b6dabacked No32c318.13$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.82445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a7b…03b0backed No32c309.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes68c307.93$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0248923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes73c300$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.635631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x129f…7b9ebacked Yes64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c72…3efdbacked No70c297.29$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.961752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c58…13b9backed No68c295.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008655.8%48 W · 38 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No10c279.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0910913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddae…7d66backed Yes57c266.67$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.675125.5%13 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe000…cbb1backed Yes30c262.65$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.568441.7%35 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da6…c757backed Yes56c255.79$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.854454.5%24 W · 20 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed No30c250$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.789930.3%30 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No31c244.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes69c236.91$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.912744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes74c233.19$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6310838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No66c232.1$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2516231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes72c228.06$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2116553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa16a…f512backed Yes54c222.22$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.223345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed Yes52c214.86$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8611454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes67c210$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.311559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No33c210$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.38250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9c79…fdf7backed No26c209.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.941717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a0c…a35abacked Yes73c204.75$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.754436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes46c202.16$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.164436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9945…385bbacked Yes61c201.77$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.422755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes68c201$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6429653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3621631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked No52c198.63$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.064951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes61c196.7$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7116131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.