Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf455579e646961ca779a485d1b14b80c920664eff4972b2817d4c029d3a5adfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 280.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 30c | 249.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 186.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 67c | 152.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 15c | 141.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…2f80backed Yes | 64c | 140.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 131.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 20c | 114.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 57c | 109.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 104.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 70c | 100.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 55c | 90.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 65c | 89.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 65c | 88.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…df2cbacked No | 28c | 63.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 39c | 48.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed No | 42c | 48.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4373…6d1cbacked No | 38c | 45.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 36c | 44.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 44.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 60c | 43.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 59c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 42.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 66c | 42.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 38.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 42c | 35.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ff1bbacked Yes | 69c | 35.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 70c | 34.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…8d06backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 34c | 30.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 30.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 28.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 35c | 28.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 70c | 27.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 41c | 25.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 78c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 73c | 25.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 67c | 25.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 68c | 24.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 47c | 24.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 65c | 22.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe15…6b8ebacked No | 65c | 21.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 66c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 56c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.