Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd98108df9f4b28bbc447da3acb7db36028ed3095a8bd3262f2977ceb44a9c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 30c | 374.6$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.21 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 349$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 278.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 26c | 276.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 15c | 256.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 68c | 213.81$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 186.4$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 182.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 30c | 163.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 152.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 75c | 141.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 74c | 120.79$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 37c | 109.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 29c | 104.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 97.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 96.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 34c | 91.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 30c | 90.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed Yes | 25c | 86.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 86.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 77.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…70c2backed Yes | 29c | 69.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 72c | 68.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 29c | 68.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 64.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 63.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 59.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 43c | 58.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 58.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 33c | 56.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 53.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 50.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 30c | 49.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…ee1abacked No | 69c | 47.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 28c | 46.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed No | 73c | 46.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 44.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 64c | 44.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 42.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…9cd6backed No | 66c | 37.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 48c | 36.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…a948backed Yes | 31c | 34.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 39c | 34.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 27.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 27.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 65c | 25.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 74c | 24.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 22.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 71c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 77c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 75c | 17.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 72c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 72c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.