Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb95250cd02e56a6ddf2a1fb1e984cdebd1a8412d4be867fc6461b255cc64d90d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 40c | 255.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 70c | 213.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 10c | 209.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 164.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Yes | 34c | 159.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 42c | 115.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 111.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 64c | 94.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 82.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes | 70c | 82.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 81.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 35c | 78.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 72.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 65.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 71c | 64.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 61.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 57.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 64c | 54.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 39c | 51.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 33c | 48.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 47.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 43.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 74c | 42.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 39.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 39.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 37.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 34c | 36.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 36.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…0c71backed Yes | 67c | 29.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 28.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 37c | 27.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 48c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 69c | 25.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…2fe5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…5289backed Yes | 76c | 24.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…771dbacked Yes | 78c | 20.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…1fe9backed Yes | 75c | 18.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 72c | 18.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 58c | 17.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 16.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes | 77c | 15.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c5…f99cbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.