Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93942a56c8ab906712a9a51757d1ef4dc535f3684df876eacdc200d7a6f1686d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 249.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 23c | 234.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 65c | 211.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 23c | 191.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 178.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 15c | 152.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 16c | 127.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 114.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 113.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 54c | 106.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 103.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 62c | 89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 31c | 78.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 27c | 72.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 72c | 55.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 64c | 53.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 49c | 50.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 49.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 62c | 48.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 51c | 45.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 56c | 43.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 49c | 43.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 45c | 42.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 24c | 41.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 42c | 41.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 54c | 37.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 39c | 36.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 54c | 35.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 72c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 58c | 33.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 75c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…1b9cbacked Yes | 63c | 32.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 67c | 32.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 31.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 55c | 30.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 59c | 30.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 29.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 64c | 27.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…aba9backed Yes | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 46c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 24.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 57c | 24.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 45c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 63c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 55c | 19.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.