Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ab630dec254e949f1ccfb8d286b33ba1395dff554bbf8399a01fe95562b8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 16c | 399.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 223.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 20c | 177.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 151.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 19c | 146.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 21c | 145.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 138.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 127.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 14c | 124.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 122.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 102.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 19c | 94.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 91.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 85.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 30c | 82.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 33c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 74.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 72.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 69.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 68.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 29c | 60.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…5a8dbacked Yes | 25c | 51.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 24c | 49.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 30c | 49.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 29c | 42.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 38.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 33.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 33c | 32.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 79c | 23.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fd…87e3backed No | 68c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 66c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 74c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 80c | 13.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.