Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6990f5f8e178f4a9238b82d0fac3b520a579c9247a8f1dbf60c4587c63f3718e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 20c | 1,998$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.63 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 21c | 1,169$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.67 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 738.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…b88fbacked No | 3c | 599.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 493.78$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.49 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 18c | 476.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 64c | 327.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 65c | 309.75$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 35c | 299.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 76c | 290.02$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 9c | 271.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 224.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 217.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…6cb8backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 159.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 29c | 126.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 117.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 23c | 116.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 9c | 116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 59c | 112.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 60c | 101.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 57c | 97.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed No | 75c | 91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 78c | 90.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 57c | 87.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d83…d948backed No | 74c | 87.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 80.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44a…5130backed No | 77c | 73.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 76cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 71.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 22c | 67.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 68c | 63.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 60.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 57.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…042dbacked Yes | 25c | 54.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 51.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 76c | 49.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 48.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 62c | 48.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…e027backed Yes | 59c | 45.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 43.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 38c | 41.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 42c | 41.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 32c | 41.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 80c | 39.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 35.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ad…c7aebacked No | 58c | 34.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 60c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 33.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 78c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 30.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 63c | 30.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 64c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 44c | 27.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0080…923cbacked Yes | 60c | 26.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…f876backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d7…1c40backed No | 76c | 25.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…1a48backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 53c | 23.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 22.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.