Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdd729d85e44a153ae8d53e709ced74f249815e93570b98c6037ac479ec257b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d7…1365backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 883.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 661$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 521.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 374.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 311.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…b88fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 74c | 269.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed No | 74c | 262.41$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 29c | 216.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 215.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 186.11$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 20c | 183.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 146$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 142.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 23c | 142.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 112.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 103.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 65c | 90.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 70c | 87.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 82.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 27c | 78.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 67c | 66.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 66.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 63c | 63.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 57.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 56.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 53.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…f876backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 51.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 30c | 49.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 37c | 48.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 47.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 32c | 45.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 70c | 42.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 29c | 41.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 62c | 41.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 40.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 39.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…042dbacked Yes | 36c | 38.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 68c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 26.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 65c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 23.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…45fbbacked No | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 77c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 67c | 15.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.