Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96f3d51b46cef57462c459349135a19dbe491590221140575e2cec156d062e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 2,531$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.68 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 927.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 919.06$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 59c | 577$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed Yes | 64c | 507.42$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…1fdebacked Yes | 52c | 337.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 76c | 318.02$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 246$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 56c | 245.54$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 243.49$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 234$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 189.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 175.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 175.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 169$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 52c | 168.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 41c | 146.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 131.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 121.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 51c | 102.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 49c | 84.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 48c | 74.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 40c | 74.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 41c | 73.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 42c | 69.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 67.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 48c | 66.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed Yes | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 22c | 52.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 40c | 51.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 48.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 54c | 48.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 46.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 43.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 44c | 43.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 52c | 42.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 40.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 49c | 36.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 36.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 33c | 33.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 33.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 47c | 32.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 55c | 32.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 54c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…002abacked No | 47c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 65c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 55c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.