TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9d1d…2717

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: WNBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category WNBA at 53 out of 100; worst Valorant at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT3250%16 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.16
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$573Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$572.75
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$99.12
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$825Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$327.21
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$650
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$678Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$278.75
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$450.84
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$232.04
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$544Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$543.58
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$54.25
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$8.37
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$75
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+70.1%+$92.28
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.15
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.28
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$58.5
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+123.5%+$33.15
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+132.7%+$171.07
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$23
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.57
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$116
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Valorantlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Valorant — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: BESTIA vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$91.3
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$512Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$511.57
Valorant: MIBR vs Team Envy - Map 2 Winnerbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+46.8%+$57.36
Valorant: Joblife vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winnerbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$929Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$929.39
Valorant: Joblife vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Insbacked Joblife · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$50
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD - Map 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.74
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omegabacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.12
Valorant: Fnatic vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Insbacked Enterprise Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$133.24
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Insbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.57
Valorant: VARREL vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omegabacked VARREL · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alphabacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+124.8%+$179.49
Valorant: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alphabacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 14 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBAlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyriesbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$684Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$516
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$9.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,719Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$484.93
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Groupbacked Dplus KIA Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+73%+$56.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-07-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$24.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.