TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,607 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes47c794$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.331,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes70c711.08$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.766845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No44c700.28$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.9838243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes40c564$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No39c557.36$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.342,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c373.01$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.574,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No13c339.96$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c276.24$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.093,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes46c259.23$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.232,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No53c225$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.254,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No28c220.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.81,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes45c204.93$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5919345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d1d…2717backed Yes42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1163250%16 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes60c197.13$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7836930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes46c194.4$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0211438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25e5…96bdbacked No55c183.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006653%35 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes46c170$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc629…649cbacked Yes59c168.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.451136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes45c160.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.077934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes34c159.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10625332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c151.69$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.113,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c151.43$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c150.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.644,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2bc…1485backed Yes43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.56346%29 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No50c145$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.054,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes39c136.97$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2917028.8%49 W · 121 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No58c125.61$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.544,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes45c122.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.278139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes44c122.43$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3223143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6053…6af8backed Yes73c121$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.24785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick67cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c113.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.695,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes40c113.24$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.321,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c110.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.869,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No52c105$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes38c104.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0912927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No22c100.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.443932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c96.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.225,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd456…63a4backed Yes42c95.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.244247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No31c93.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No26c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes60c89.14$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9910463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes44c84.54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.25,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No53c82.38$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.662,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4923146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae79…5322backed Yes42c72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.762334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.845,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe023…2dcdbacked Yes56c63.61$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No48c61.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.361,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa747…bebcbacked No57c60.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.314463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a4…b64dbacked Yes52c53.94$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No29c53.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No49c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2471057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes29c50.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5540265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No31c50.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.383,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.14,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2518449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2835344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed No65c48.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.857945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes50c47.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes27c47.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.167240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No48c46.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3935429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No56c46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.724,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No28c46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.782,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes44c44.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7614359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes48c44.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.313540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No61c43.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3616272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes42c39.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.229938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked No51c39.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0428035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes35c38.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9152446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes32c38.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1222849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes52c37.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.772,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No43c36.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8189951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes56c35.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6636648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes42c35.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.182,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes41c34.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.532,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ee…4806backed Yes48c33.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.572347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No60c33.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes51c33.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.441,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No56c33.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f04…425ebacked Yes70c32.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63cc…eec5backed No56c32.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.93119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes63c31.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.74776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5d0d…849cbacked No52c30.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No58c30.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.611,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6115347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No34c30.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No50c30.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.185049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No43c28.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1635063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes40c27.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.693357.6%19 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+53.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes36c27.84$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7925536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes79c26.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.619166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5954…266abacked Yes46c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.55255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd569…087bbacked Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No68c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.051,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.