Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f68351dc57a5321f2da0a903826e6a2f9b5a898ef87776bf2ada93c245404b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 794$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 70c | 711.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.76 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 700.28$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.98 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 40c | 564$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 557.36$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.34 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 373.01$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 276.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 259.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 225$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 28c | 220.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 45c | 204.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 60c | 197.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 46c | 194.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 55c | 183.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 46c | 170$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…649cbacked Yes | 59c | 168.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 45c | 160.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.07 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 34c | 159.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 151.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 151.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 150.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 39c | 136.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 125.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 45c | 122.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 44c | 122.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…6af8backed Yes | 73c | 121$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 113.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 113.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 110.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 38c | 104.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 22c | 100.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 96.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 31c | 93.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 26c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 60c | 89.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 84.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 82.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe023…2dcdbacked Yes | 56c | 63.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 61.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 57c | 60.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a4…b64dbacked Yes | 52c | 53.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 29c | 53.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 49c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 29c | 50.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 50.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 65c | 48.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 27c | 47.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 48c | 46.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 44c | 44.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 48c | 44.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 61c | 43.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 42c | 39.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 51c | 39.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 38.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 32c | 38.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 37.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 36.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 56c | 35.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 42c | 35.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 41c | 34.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed Yes | 48c | 33.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 51c | 33.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 33.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f04…425ebacked Yes | 70c | 32.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed No | 56c | 32.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 63c | 31.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 30.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 43c | 28.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 40c | 27.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 36c | 27.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 79c | 26.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…087bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 37°C or higher on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.