Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18ab4efa5b9d870d4ebc1a6a44bb0e49c8928b53eee29839f3dc20503f2d7620
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 424.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 394.13$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 300.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.14 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 298.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 278.85$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 52c | 242.88$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 78c | 214.4$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 183.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 23c | 153.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 144.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 25c | 131.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 26c | 121$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 108.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 108.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked No | 79c | 99.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 98.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 72c | 80.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 76.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 74.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 71.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 66.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 61.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 59.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 66c | 58.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 47.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 46.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 34.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 46c | 33.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…de1abacked Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 40c | 27.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 67c | 20.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.