Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a44263c1b120b5739372a4f03828e4a0644c35582e1cb5de0c0d6245a4145df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 1,142$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…6a94backed Yes | 43c | 598.79$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 515.78$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.92 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 62c | 301.68$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 35c | 245.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 234.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 212.64$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 76c | 197.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 60c | 195$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 189.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 13c | 184.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 174.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 137.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 37c | 123.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 121$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 33c | 119.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 42c | 115.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 105.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 104.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 104.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 101.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 42c | 88.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 62c | 84.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 42c | 79.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 22c | 79.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 78.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…2f9abacked Yes | 31c | 65.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 61.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 52.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 33c | 48.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 26c | 46.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 22c | 45.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 41.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 41.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 64c | 37.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 34.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 63c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 32.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 76c | 31.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…0218backed No | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 29.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 27.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 22.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 63c | 19.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 19.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 73c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.