Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75f5e3500ff23fc06ec2a47c54f097b6f5dec6502ebcc8e056566de2013b0b3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd217…7561backed No | 74c | 912.12$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 19c | 682.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 493.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 25c | 434.1$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 406.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 80c | 272.85$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 249.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 243.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 75c | 207.38$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 193.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 148.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 12c | 131.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 12c | 102.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 68c | 81.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 79.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 31c | 67.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 62.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 58.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 48.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 46.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 35.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 34.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…261cbacked No | 75c | 32.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 74cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 79c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 80c | 16.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…010fbacked No | 77c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.