Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb19f15a4034fd0055762a9c2ddada94b370af2330216b989ba8027105ed991fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 27c | 553.93$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.01 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 10c | 438.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.94 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 55c | 356.83$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.95 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 31c | 326.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.61 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 291.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 282.52$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.22 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 36c | 280$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.38 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 248.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 11c | 136.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 22c | 135.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 50c | 135.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 129.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 123$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 74c | 119$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 109.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 105$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 99.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 20c | 95.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 47c | 91.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 90.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 56c | 88.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 84.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 77.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 73.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 70.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 69.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 68.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 65.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 65.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 19c | 64.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 63.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 63.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 58.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 56.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 27c | 53.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 76c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 48.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 43c | 46.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 56c | 44.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 24c | 44.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 39.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 38.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 32.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 45c | 31.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 45c | 28.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…c599backed Yes | 72c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 23.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…218abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 69c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15c…4369backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.