TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FaZe (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FaZeof Legacy, FaZe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,459,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,685,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,459,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 690 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed Legacy37c175,275$64,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,575.6413548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Legacy49c148,144$72,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,590.5312348.8%60 W · 63 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked FaZe51c100,000$51,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,00016443.9%72 W · 92 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed Legacy49c99,999$49,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,999.6517951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed FaZe70c77,407$53,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,562.2125355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Legacy49c70,000$34,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,299.953046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8c…9555backed FaZe78c48,595$38,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,594.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked FaZe62c40,000$24,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,20025655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x447d…5eeabacked FaZe51c39,710$20,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,457.93647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7e2…9e36backed FaZe51c39,192$19,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,389366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Legacy49c35,000$17,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,149.8575652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked FaZe51c30,753$15,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,069.1914145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Legacy49c30,612$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0002240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Legacy32c30,264$9,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,593.4620448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed FaZe51c29,223$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,223.2319055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x994e…6136backed FaZe51c25,000$12,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,3003250%16 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FaZe51c25,000$12,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,249.9981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Legacy48c24,970$11,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,985.581,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Legacy29c24,248$6,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,951.331,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed FaZe51c22,628$11,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,159.7460853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Legacy49c22,500$10,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,949.9523145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfae1…fdc1backed FaZe51c21,500$10,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,535540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd63…050fbacked FaZe51c20,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.963050%15 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed FaZe51c18,064$9,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,851.5622849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed FaZe52c16,000$8,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6805240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Legacy49c15,676$7,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,681.2449536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed FaZe78c14,120$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.718670.9%61 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked FaZe52c13,433$6,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,435.2459839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked Legacy28c13,260$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.763729.7%11 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FaZe51c12,770$6,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,28342142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf177…5f6abacked Legacy50c12,442$6,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,220.932060%12 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked FaZe50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00036152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed FaZe51c12,000$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8804650%23 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Legacy27c11,816$3,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,191.941,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd690…47febacked FaZe51c10,782$5,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,283.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Legacy49c10,078$4,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.3766851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9d…3c52backed FaZe50c10,050$5,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0251163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Legacy50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002560%15 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Legacy49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,900850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FaZe51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,90050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Legacy50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Legacy49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed FaZe51c9,724$4,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,764.971233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Legacy27c9,088$2,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,462.6588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x111d…21babacked FaZe70c8,980$6,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-16%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb8b1…a7babacked FaZe52c8,399$4,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,031.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Legacy46c7,533$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,46123249.1%114 W · 118 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d2…629cbacked FaZe51c7,525$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,687.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed FaZe72c7,400$5,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108.362948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked Legacy49c7,300$3,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5774544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FaZe51c7,114$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,496.1964852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed FaZe50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50017062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Legacy50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed FaZe70c7,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10017737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c7d…83edbacked FaZe51c6,210$3,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,042.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Legacy27c6,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6201,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed FaZe61c5,931$3,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.9929449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Legacy26c5,913$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.082,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332b…af19backed FaZe70c5,700$3,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7101040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy33c5,608$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.181,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked FaZe51c5,608$2,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,747.8932348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2095…873ebacked FaZe50c5,200$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5885534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1d6f…789bbacked FaZe51c5,200$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.82638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed FaZe73c5,101$3,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,377.265160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Legacy25c5,008$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Legacy49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45028538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed FaZe50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50037946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Legacy50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked FaZe51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4504963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+53.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Legacy30c4,993$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.21,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Legacy49c4,957$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.7414846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed FaZe66c4,813$3,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.463540%14 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa931…1387backed FaZe51c4,706$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Legacy33c4,569$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49010635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Legacy43c4,323$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.5657641.1%237 W · 339 L-21.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Legacy50c4,301$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,150.673435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e0b…bc0dbacked FaZe51c4,300$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1071127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-57.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked FaZe74c4,200$3,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09224943.8%109 W · 140 L-1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x568b…4727backed FaZe51c4,185$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.532864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1d9…a1b2backed FaZe50c4,156$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Legacy25c4,120$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.941,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed FaZe76c4,104$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.162,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…edbebacked FaZe50c4,080$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed FaZe50c4,001$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.421662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2a5…55d6backed Legacy50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-50.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Legacy49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96060248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed FaZe51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.5748350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde1e…7ac6backed Legacy8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd47c…39b5backed FaZe51c3,705$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.45054%27 W · 23 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked FaZe51c3,582$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.098052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed FaZe69c3,555$2,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.057766.2%51 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Legacy17c3,453$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.9737440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed FaZe50c3,289$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.451,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed FaZe51c3,171$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.6121945.7%100 W · 119 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed FaZe52c3,167$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.2910143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Legacy49c3,086$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,512.343745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d5…9e9fbacked FaZe55c3,010$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.765855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FaZe64c3,009$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.631,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked FaZe74c3,000$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78029046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Legacy49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47075450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.