Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadbfeaaa2dde320245c87642bb5995812339287ef93fa08bed1c202b533b3b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 20c | 517.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 291.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 77c | 275.34$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.51 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed Yes | 16c | 248.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 202.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 195.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.9 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 151.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 150.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 73c | 137.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 77c | 136.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 52c | 130.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 15c | 112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 24c | 105.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 103.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 100.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 94.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 85.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 14c | 82.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 34c | 82.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 52c | 80.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 28c | 79.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 79.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 41c | 73.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 70.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 68.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 68.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 18c | 65.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 29c | 64.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 17c | 63.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 63.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 66c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 56.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 65c | 49.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 27c | 48.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 41c | 39.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 31c | 35.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 69c | 30.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 30.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 26.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 55c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 79c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 20.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.