Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62e4a570d964e4070c23f41c5474219bdf97d7c5ea656236582dac594046e9d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 401.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 401$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.19 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 263.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 207.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 193$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 52c | 185$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 78c | 153.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 144.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 137.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 129.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 128.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 124.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 121.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 113.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed No | 68c | 102.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 47c | 97.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 93.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 93.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 77c | 91.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 51c | 76.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 62c | 74.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 74.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 25c | 72.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 46c | 70.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 47c | 70.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 53c | 69.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 22c | 68.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 66c | 60.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 55.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 38c | 52.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 50.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 51c | 48.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 48.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 35c | 47.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 43c | 45.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 46c | 45.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 43.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 62c | 41.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 43c | 41.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 45c | 40.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 78c | 33.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 54c | 32.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 29.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 43c | 29.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 28.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 53c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 25.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 55c | 25.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 58c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 70c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.