TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Fnatic vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Enterprise Esportsof Fnatic, Enterprise Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$409,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$454,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,153 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 387 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2c33…0563backed Fnatic61c61,475$37,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,803.086643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Enterprise Esports38c54,143$20,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,686.634356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Enterprise Esports37c18,183$6,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,390.3728143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Enterprise Esports36c15,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,599.943767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Fnatic63c13,222$8,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,374.263046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Fnatic63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.974740.4%19 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Enterprise Esports23c9,500$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,284.332245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Fnatic64c9,372$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,997.947164.8%46 W · 25 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Enterprise Esports40c8,092$3,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,837.8213355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Enterprise Esports47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2402055%11 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+39.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Enterprise Esports33c7,651$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.131560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x898b…6c00backed Fnatic59c6,969$4,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,107.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Enterprise Esports38c6,500$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,006.9852155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Enterprise Esports36c6,147$2,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,935.2219860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Enterprise Esports31c6,000$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,157.484630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Enterprise Esports45c5,246$2,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,898.4556357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Fnatic60c5,140$3,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085.021118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick43cpaid-63.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Fnatic62c5,043$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,129.5435142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Fnatic64c5,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.956038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Fnatic63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.917550.7%38 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed Fnatic48c4,713$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Enterprise Esports41c4,659$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,748.9526650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Fnatic61c4,376$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.3626447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Enterprise Esports36c4,351$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.352152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Fnatic63c4,000$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.0463955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…5478backed Fnatic62c3,509$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.061936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Fnatic65c3,490$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2513551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Fnatic60c3,380$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.1868458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Enterprise Esports42c3,370$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.5594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf86c…9f3bbacked Fnatic64c2,998$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Enterprise Esports38c2,630$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.611354%61 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Enterprise Esports41c2,592$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.1853355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Enterprise Esports36c2,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.9816952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Enterprise Esports39c2,390$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.295464.8%35 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed Enterprise Esports39c2,254$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.895356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Enterprise Esports36c2,100$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,34441734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x017d…94f4backed Fnatic64c2,028$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fnatic72c2,010$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.421,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Enterprise Esports42c1,909$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.2453159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked Fnatic64c1,904$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Fnatic79c1,866$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.6893049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1982…be15backed Fnatic61c1,827$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.753458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Fnatic21c1,800$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37822018.2%40 W · 180 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…6625backed Fnatic34c1,759$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Enterprise Esports36c1,742$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.316570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Enterprise Esports23c1,710$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,308.339737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Fnatic68c1,623$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.319656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Fnatic54c1,621$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.2465559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Fnatic64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00034857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Fnatic64c1,461$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93515343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x999d…a1e1backed Fnatic64c1,413$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.3250%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Fnatic55c1,255$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.7146326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Enterprise Esports27c1,216$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.4410455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Fnatic62c1,200$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e38…2a58backed Fnatic66c1,138$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.324273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc653…300dbacked Enterprise Esports52c1,088$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.081080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+54.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4723…5f64backed Enterprise Esports40c1,071$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.35560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Enterprise Esports57c1,019$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.3519546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc236…e3d3backed Enterprise Esports31c1,011$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.883132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Fnatic64c1,005$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.76317.5%11 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23b4…7056backed Enterprise Esports39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6103050%15 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Enterprise Esports35c964.56$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.285263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked Fnatic44c935$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.42835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Enterprise Esports38c930.04$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.8521457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Fnatic62c887.1$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55014653.4%78 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Fnatic58c870.28$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.7230835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Enterprise Esports39c869.62$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.3662156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Enterprise Esports48c865.56$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.62429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Fnatic47c863.93$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9525336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Fnatic61c846$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Fnatic64c840.61$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.9917640.3%71 W · 105 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fnatic51c833.64$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.4355637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Enterprise Esports37c810$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.325555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Enterprise Esports37c804.47$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.3125556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Fnatic63c799.99$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Fnatic61c796.72$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48628747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f5b…315ebacked Enterprise Esports36c794.47$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.461729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Fnatic60c793.29$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.0681134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed Enterprise Esports40c780$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4686930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Fnatic57c778.49$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.7516144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fnatic56c769.89$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.441,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Fnatic53c760.59$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.581,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Fnatic25c756.58$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8413743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Fnatic61c747.05$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9577929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Fnatic80c723.3$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.178562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Enterprise Esports55c710$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.52944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Enterprise Esports50c702.89$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.067047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed Fnatic56c700$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3925052%26 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Fnatic60c700$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42014645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked Fnatic66c699.98$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.996668.2%45 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8037…04fabacked Fnatic71c694.11$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.14843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed Fnatic59c690.55$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4067749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Fnatic65c690.46$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.8415147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Enterprise Esports48c662.15$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.3432462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e6d…6f31backed Enterprise Esports36c658$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.126443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked Enterprise Esports12c618.71$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.026931.9%22 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Enterprise Esports50c606$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3067456.8%42 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Enterprise Esports39c599.99$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36618049.4%89 W · 91 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcda…5e95backed Fnatic75c596.03$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.4411457%65 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Fnatic70c593.93$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.6628743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.