TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x999d…a1e1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: WNBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category WNBA at 56 out of 100; worst Valorant at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT2161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
WNBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5)backed Las Vegas Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$113
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)backed Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,426Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,425.59
Atlanta Dream vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$90.82
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,820Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$5,221.84
Spread: Portland Fire (-2.5)backed Toronto Tempo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,464Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,463.99
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5)backed Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$6,112Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,112.01
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 188.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$266.81
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 193.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,377Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$1,323.21
Atlanta Dream vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.08
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$23.82
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)backed Connecticut Sun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,919Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$1,843.45
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 162.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+98.4%+$1,129.12
Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)backed Golden State Valkyries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$34.3
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-11.5)backed Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,156Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$1,989.96
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Los Angeles Sparks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$905Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$904.85
Seattle Storm vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.58
Washington Mystics vs. Toronto Tempobacked Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$6,454Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$5,520.74
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5)backed Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$5,326Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$5,118.16
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)backed Washington Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,427Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,608.74
PortlandFire vs. Connecticut Sunbacked PortlandFire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,107
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5)backed Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$7,571Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$5,948.95
All 21 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11,951Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$3,720.78
AFC Ajax vs. Shelbourne FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+179.6%+$634.06
Will KAA Gent win on 2026-08-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,237Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$1,511.94
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-08-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+108.2%+$1,514.6
Noah FA vs. FC Sion: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$553.4
Will FC Lugano win on 2026-07-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.63
ÍF Vestri vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: ÍF Vestri O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,648Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,647.61
ÍF Vestri vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$704.24
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,136.64
MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$3,077Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$2,956.25
Ferencvárosi TC vs. FK Vojvodina Novi Sad: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$107.94
Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)backed Ferencvárosi TC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+104.3%+$91.22
Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$34.82
All 13 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffsbacked GenOne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.16
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5)backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+112.7%+$201.32
Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+1.5)backed BORRACHEIROS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$100.7
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$329
Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5)backed Walczaki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+79.9%+$314.41
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs FOKUS (+1.5)backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.15
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group Dbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$314.1
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs SAW Youngsters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stagebacked SPARTA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+37%+$93.69
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Julie&cie (+1.5)backed Julie&cie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.13
Map Handicap: SAW.Y (-1.5) vs Fortress (+1.5)backed Fortress · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.07
All 10 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: FOX.Y (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (+1.5)backed Hanwha Life Esports Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$702.44
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Game Handicap: FOX.Y (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5)backed Gen.G Global Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$173.42
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+71.5%+$353.2
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked Esprit Shōnen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$355.74
LoL: Galions vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked Ici Japon Corp. Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.2
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$426Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+131.7%+$561.57
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs 7REX (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seasonbacked 7REX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.12
Game Handicap: MKF (-1.5) vs GIANTX iTero (+1.5)backed GIANTX iTero · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Valorant — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kuopion PS vs. Sabah FK: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$102
Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-1.5)backed FK ML Viciebsk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$104.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stoke City FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,550Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$3,024.04
Leicester City FC vs. Northampton Town FC: Northampton Town FC O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+100%+$62.28
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
England vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$5,654Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+98.2%+$5,552.82
France vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,064Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+82.5%+$878.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - EPL Masters Group Abacked Ilbirs eSports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$378
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.