WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e7031729bd6b2f4015e68b250378e59820047fe713eb1a4ac098211197bf369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…8409backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.97 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 8,303$3,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,305.51 | 1,820 | 51.7%941 W · 879 L | +54.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 4,949$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,424.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…56d8backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 4,018$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 3,762$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.45 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 3,056$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.8 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.33 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun | 59c | 2,497$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.99 | 526 | 52.7%277 W · 249 L | +18.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…dcb7backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 2,386$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 2,235$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.86 | 400 | 45.5%182 W · 218 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 2,115$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…9683backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 1,746$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 1,542$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.48 | 420 | 51.2%215 W · 205 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 1,475$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury | 38c | 1,361$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.22 | 353 | 26.1%92 W · 261 L | -22.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 1,275$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 1,256$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.16 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,005$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.53 | 923 | 49.2%454 W · 469 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…9105backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 956$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.96 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 742.45$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.52 | 809 | 48.6%393 W · 416 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Connecticut Sun | 59c | 688$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.52 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 578.89$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.18 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 500.48$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.25 | 351 | 47.9%168 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 497.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 19c | 469.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 1,635 | 50.2%820 W · 815 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…edacbacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 362.54$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 301.91$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 332 | 50%166 W · 166 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 330 | 50%165 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 203.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…772bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 195.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 194.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 276 | 46%127 W · 149 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…306dbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 50cpaid | +77%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 178.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 679 | 51.1%347 W · 332 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 150.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 133$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…1750backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 133$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Connecticut Sun | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 381 | 50.7%193 W · 188 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 101$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 96.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Connecticut Sun | 61c | 80.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 73.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 335 | 49%164 W · 171 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Phoenix Mercury | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 61.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 56.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Connecticut Sun | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 52.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…90e0backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 340 | 48.2%164 W · 176 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Connecticut Sun | 58c | 49.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 249 | 52.6%131 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 45.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Connecticut Sun | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 39.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 38.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 359 | 54.9%197 W · 162 L | +22.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Connecticut Sun | 62c | 38.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Connecticut Sun | 66c | 37.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 36.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 783 | 42.3%331 W · 452 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8e…13febacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 34.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 34.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 25.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Connecticut Sun | 63c | 21.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad1…9198backed Connecticut Sun | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryConnecticut Sun won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.