WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e56aee948664956b15dafc96a7b8a954c02db3a0f64147bec18792d3944ae7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 16,916$8,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,627.2 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…8973backed Under | 51c | 14,370$7,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,328.7 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…56d8backed Under | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 2,968$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.83 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 1,594$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.6 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 49c | 1,530$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 21c | 1,328$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 658.22$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.92 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Over | 50c | 551$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 66c | 478$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.55 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 52c | 399.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 337.98$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.37 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +50%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Under | 51c | 285.54$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 251$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…edacbacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…db42backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 51c | 190.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 186.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 23c | 153.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Under | 20c | 64.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Under | 20c | 60.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 58.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…ad0fbacked Under | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec8…c5d4backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 25c | 44.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd3…0e24backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 79c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 51c | 21.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryConnecticut Sun won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.