TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Connecticut Sunof Connecticut Sun, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,890
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,890 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed Phoenix Mercury63c66,907$42,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,1358937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Connecticut Sun37c63,681$23,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,883.3378548.8%383 W · 402 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Phoenix Mercury63c23,259$14,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,653.3310749.5%53 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Phoenix Mercury64c13,539$8,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,664.739245.7%42 W · 50 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6096…0f9cbacked Connecticut Sun38c11,899$4,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,321.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Connecticut Sun36c7,000$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,48010338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed Connecticut Sun37c5,405$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.417236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury13c4,138$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4374942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Phoenix Mercury5c3,945$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.178228%23 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Phoenix Mercury54c3,520$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.317740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun37c3,463$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.0183748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury20c2,953$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.661,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Phoenix Mercury1c2,927$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0844915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Connecticut Sun37c2,593$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.364967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Phoenix Mercury37c2,553$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.362669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Connecticut Sun74c2,281$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.3113256.8%75 W · 57 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Connecticut Sun59c2,207$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.836746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Phoenix Mercury35c2,071$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.2619458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9047…9683backed Connecticut Sun36c1,833$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+143.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Connecticut Sun37c1,716$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.941145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Connecticut Sun60c1,706$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.5836750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Phoenix Mercury12c1,594$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Connecticut Sun44c1,573$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.42642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa60…52d9backed Phoenix Mercury63c1,550$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Phoenix Mercury61c1,467$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90019446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Phoenix Mercury20c1,331$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4219428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Phoenix Mercury62c1,233$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.8240550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037d…22a4backed Phoenix Mercury4c1,117$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Connecticut Sun37c1,044$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.7217946.9%84 W · 95 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Phoenix Mercury12c1,011$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.178837.5%33 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Connecticut Sun36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64010548.6%51 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb5…98f8backed Connecticut Sun38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.38per pick49cpaid+84.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Phoenix Mercury38c970.53$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed Connecticut Sun76c770.71$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.711926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.7wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8bcf…c767backed Connecticut Sun38c741.16$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.529140.7%37 W · 54 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Connecticut Sun35c666$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.98733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked Connecticut Sun53c653.94$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.155655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun68c538.25$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9350952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Connecticut Sun36c501.78$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.1434448%165 W · 179 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Phoenix Mercury3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dba…5e2bbacked Connecticut Sun42c477.98$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d6c2backed Connecticut Sun39c461.56$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.813342.4%14 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Connecticut Sun63c460$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury35c455$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0655255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Phoenix Mercury23c400.01$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9510634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Phoenix Mercury35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00e8…0039backed Phoenix Mercury7c342.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd583…588ebacked Phoenix Mercury64c326.84$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.18475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Connecticut Sun36c326.28$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Phoenix Mercury5c325.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.734726.5%92 W · 255 L-20.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff39…b904backed Connecticut Sun47c324.33$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.063154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39d…aa9dbacked Phoenix Mercury10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Connecticut Sun37c299.43$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.641136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+129.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Connecticut Sun65c285$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.755364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Connecticut Sun73c280$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.650646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Connecticut Sun37c272.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.976643.9%29 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Connecticut Sun38c267.32$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7423746.4%110 W · 127 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Connecticut Sun38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.167829.5%23 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Connecticut Sun51c256.91$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.918061.3%49 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5657…6c86backed Phoenix Mercury4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15532750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Phoenix Mercury62c249.98$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9922446%103 W · 121 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Connecticut Sun41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.911353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…7f0cbacked Phoenix Mercury17c241.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Connecticut Sun70c240$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.241147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Phoenix Mercury12c230$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.062544%11 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a65…e883backed Phoenix Mercury58c229.64$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury35c229.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4999548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7218…1b20backed Phoenix Mercury63c226.7$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Connecticut Sun36c222.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.223545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Phoenix Mercury31c219$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1915048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Phoenix Mercury61c211.53$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.031464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x304a…05ecbacked Phoenix Mercury10c210$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Phoenix Mercury30c204.58$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked Connecticut Sun37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Connecticut Sun46c199.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1089255.4%51 W · 41 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Phoenix Mercury25c179.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2919031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Phoenix Mercury45c169.65$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4620642.7%88 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Connecticut Sun56c169.43$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6610453.8%56 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury54c161.05$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9785158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Phoenix Mercury12c160$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.528535.3%30 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Connecticut Sun74c160$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.931847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Phoenix Mercury64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb70…52c0backed Connecticut Sun77c148.56$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.141844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf903…de2fbacked Connecticut Sun38c148.11$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.833243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Connecticut Sun37c143$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0913147.3%62 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Connecticut Sun72c141.01$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.388447.6%40 W · 44 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…45c2backed Phoenix Mercury65c140$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914060%24 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Phoenix Mercury36c134.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.597520%15 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Connecticut Sun38c132.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.058138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x722a…d6edbacked Phoenix Mercury16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Phoenix Mercury42c120.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.337368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x005b…3c81backed Phoenix Mercury30c119.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.991258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Phoenix Mercury13c103.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313358.6%78 W · 55 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Phoenix Mercury49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499156%51 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Phoenix Mercury65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf202…9ea8backed Phoenix Mercury60c97.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.773762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Phoenix Mercury24c95.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6910538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Phoenix Mercury65c95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7528558.6%167 W · 118 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Connecticut Sun69c94.08$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3815654.5%85 W · 71 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.