WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29d39c09c8e3bae5e0db35320221c1991a9c7a4a0d92d3789cbf6a4a0c7aa057
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Over | 54c | 19,588$10,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,079.84 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 4,650$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.82 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 47c | 4,256$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.32 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.99 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 2,578$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.84 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 1,829$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.34 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 1,550$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.67 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 19c | 1,271$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 74c | 915.51$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 831.44$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.79 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 781.06$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.29 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 46c | 652.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 15c | 457.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…cfa1backed Over | 50c | 430$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…edacbacked Over | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 24c | 409$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 331$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.26 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 328.53$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Over | 53c | 290$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 19c | 211.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474a…a275backed Over | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 65c | 202.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 49c | 201.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 48c | 196.42$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.28 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Over | 53c | 175.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 43c | 138$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 69c | 136.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 134.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 26c | 132.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…c64abacked Over | 53c | 129.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 66c | 127.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 53c | 126.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 51c | 102.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8f52backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 68.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Under | 22c | 65.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Under | 22c | 64.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 69c | 63.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 26c | 62.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 23c | 61.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 69c | 58.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 50c | 49.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 69c | 42.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed Under | 48c | 26.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 54c | 23.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryConnecticut Sun won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.