WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2203ef29209b1d30c9a101c78f324e64ae894189414940a0bc2f3c8ed2ab6540
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 838.29$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Connecticut Sun | 56c | 583.18$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.6 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 533.04$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.48 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…a119backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 278.29$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 250$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Connecticut Sun | 53c | 193.73$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 180.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 101.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Connecticut Sun | 61c | 99.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 87.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 68.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -16.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Connecticut Sun | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Connecticut Sun | 55c | 61.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Connecticut Sun | 55c | 60.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Connecticut Sun | 56c | 38.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 38.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryConnecticut Sun won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.