WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa679a9e221ff57a898b21e218df65a8ecef0125137000585c32c141ad4177cfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 76c | 1,864$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.5 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 1,265$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.5 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 936.37$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.53 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 813.45$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.18 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 25c | 804$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.32 | 564 | 55.1%311 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 54c | 768.19$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.85 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 21c | 525.28$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Over | 51c | 385.69$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 264.59$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Over | 58c | 259.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 29c | 224.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 612 | 42.3%259 W · 353 L | -31.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 49c | 209.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…a09cbacked Over | 63c | 204.71$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787b…f0a6backed Under | 33c | 146.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 511 | 47.2%241 W · 270 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 37c | 134.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…fcabbacked Under | 48c | 119.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 42c | 119.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 29c | 118.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 118.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 1,012 | 47.9%485 W · 527 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd03…60fbbacked Over | 62c | 81.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 73c | 68.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 47.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 333 | 47.7%159 W · 174 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Over | 72c | 40.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 55c | 34.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 40c | 33.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 63c | 28.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 44c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 46c | 26.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryConnecticut Sun won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 162.5Over won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.