Europa Conference League · resolved market
Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc330f730ae06836677e6bf097a5daa122ab4774de49cb8becd874c5fe0ee64ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde0f…ddd3backed Under | 41c | 4,869$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 22c | 3,127$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.86 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 1,907$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.04 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Under | 2c | 1,010$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.76 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 833.45$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.32 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 52c | 466.69$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.98 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 64c | 462.58$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 53c | 380.71$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.08 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 54c | 184.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 58c | 117.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 28c | 111.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Over | 51c | 71.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 31c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 52c | 44.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 28c | 40.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 65c | 32.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 31.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Over | 65c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -8.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 52c | 24.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 51c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 2.5this page
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 0.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 3.5Under won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 4.5Under won
- Paide Linnameeskond vs. FC Hegelmann: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Paide Linnameeskond (-1.5)Paide Linnameeskond won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.