TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Team Syntax
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,464

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0993…525fbacked Team Syntax40c5,781$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.61844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Ilbirs eSports60c1,727$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.329243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Ilbirs eSports64c1,555$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.4711656%65 W · 51 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Ilbirs eSports60c1,239$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.4850353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5bc…a013backed Team Syntax35c1,100$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3856342.9%27 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53d3…cc48backed Ilbirs eSports60c1,020$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.072441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team Syntax1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023736.7%87 W · 150 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Ilbirs eSports60c996.67$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.6725549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Syntax37c979.28$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.9438142%160 W · 221 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x999d…a1e1backed Ilbirs eSports60c945$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Syntax25c899.96$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9932445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdccf…faeabacked Ilbirs eSports60c898.23$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.29560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Team Syntax38c847.29$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports68c692.3$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.351,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Ilbirs eSports72c662$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.3616539.4%65 W · 100 L-0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Syntax39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23446240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Team Syntax40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked Team Syntax40c534.21$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.547839.7%31 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Syntax21c498.16$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Ilbirs eSports60c490.18$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0710853.7%58 W · 50 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked Ilbirs eSports62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8710637.7%40 W · 66 L-9.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports72c439.46$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed Team Syntax41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1646240.3%25 W · 37 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Syntax20c394.3$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7893546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports80c378.61$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.121,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Team Syntax41c370$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.78842%37 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports70c366.75$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.231,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b6…f6ffbacked Ilbirs eSports79c348$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Team Syntax35c302.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.711847.5%56 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Syntax33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Ilbirs eSports73c282.08$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.067265.3%47 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Ilbirs eSports69c281.96$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Syntax5c268.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3589238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b0…89d3backed Ilbirs eSports77c263.67$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.641172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Syntax20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5070052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Syntax40c245.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.553634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Team Syntax38c244.26$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.823336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Team Syntax39c239.06$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7433445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Syntax25c221$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8458943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Team Syntax24c208.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.843860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x12b1…b851backed Team Syntax33c204.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Syntax15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.271,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed Team Syntax20c192.61$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.985621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Syntax26c189$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1356945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Team Syntax23c186.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4621328.2%60 W · 153 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Ilbirs eSports68c179.74$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.937745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Ilbirs eSports59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4914643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Ilbirs eSports62c168.63$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0825956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Ilbirs eSports67c161.51$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.371,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4436…ffd1backed Ilbirs eSports62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Ilbirs eSports78c146.21$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4319547.2%92 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Team Syntax36c145$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210643.4%46 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Ilbirs eSports62c144.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0961449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Ilbirs eSports64c138$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.322562.2%140 W · 85 L-0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b8…abf5backed Ilbirs eSports77c126.17$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.171060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ilbirs eSports70c122.18$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.831,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed Ilbirs eSports60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Ilbirs eSports59c119$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.791040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Team Syntax20c114.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2822738.3%87 W · 140 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Team Syntax23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254843.8%21 W · 27 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Ilbirs eSports60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409942.4%42 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked Ilbirs eSports63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3716361.3%100 W · 63 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Syntax44c99.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4467555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed Team Syntax23c91.3$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2125339.1%99 W · 154 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Ilbirs eSports56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x091a…8287backed Ilbirs eSports60c87.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.161464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c1…3174backed Ilbirs eSports60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe24e…eecebacked Ilbirs eSports60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.335255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked Ilbirs eSports56c82.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3510551.4%54 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Team Syntax38c78.95$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302313%3 W · 20 L-5.7wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-72.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Syntax27c73.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7981345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Ilbirs eSports60c73.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4514154.6%77 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a53…71a3backed Team Syntax28c71.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018562.7%116 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Syntax18c71.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8252046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Ilbirs eSports62c70$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.625348.6%123 W · 130 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Ilbirs eSports70c67.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.043348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Ilbirs eSports62c64.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6312252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31db…9c36backed Ilbirs eSports60c57.87$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.151060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Team Syntax41c56.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c20…e998backed Team Syntax41c54.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked Team Syntax38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Ilbirs eSports59c52.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3810952.3%57 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Syntax31c51.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0337832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7238…64ebbacked Ilbirs eSports70c50.23$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.96771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+35.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Ilbirs eSports62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Team Syntax41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.597142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad6…c1c4backed Team Syntax42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.89326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Syntax36c38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5368345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Ilbirs eSports71c35.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2113975.5%105 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2799…b1e1backed Team Syntax41c32.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.351060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Team Syntax37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.114252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e5…9f34backed Ilbirs eSports60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7f…97c2backed Ilbirs eSports60c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Ilbirs eSports77c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.961,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Ilbirs eSports61c25.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103964.1%25 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Ilbirs eSports59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.256841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Ilbirs eSports60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…0306backed Ilbirs eSports80c19.85$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.021070%7 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17a…f7e5backed Ilbirs eSports77c18.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.28955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x250f…4fc6backed Ilbirs eSports68c17.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63663.9%23 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.