TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Twisted Minds Orchidof SK Nebula, Twisted Minds Orchid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,509 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0aa4…5dc8backed Twisted Minds Orchid33c4,940$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.542564%16 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed SK Nebula65c2,322$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.3144342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked SK Nebula64c1,416$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.3884838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e38…2a58backed Twisted Minds Orchid36c1,385$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.354273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked SK Nebula57c943.81$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.976759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Twisted Minds Orchid36c906.06$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.0829733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed SK Nebula58c802.82$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4637749.4%38 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Twisted Minds Orchid38c768.52$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.489845.9%45 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed SK Nebula61c766.97$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.855952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked SK Nebula61c696.41$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.066639.4%26 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00a8…d2c8backed Twisted Minds Orchid35c661.97$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.995442.6%23 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69f2…a80dbacked Twisted Minds Orchid40c608.99$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.966668.2%45 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Twisted Minds Orchid47c525.82$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9615038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked SK Nebula64c471.8$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.997234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x8868…ec09backed SK Nebula68c441.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.41080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked SK Nebula64c441.17$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.351353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed SK Nebula38c420.39$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2893049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked SK Nebula68c402$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.788348.2%40 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a8…8c5cbacked SK Nebula64c400$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Twisted Minds Orchid47c366.47$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.4839646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed SK Nebula62c352.18$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7228252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Twisted Minds Orchid56c340.28$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.61,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed28…87cebacked SK Nebula68c306.6$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.49560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Twisted Minds Orchid33c303.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.047544%33 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed SK Nebula65c300.9$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.2613661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6fcd…fbfcbacked SK Nebula67c294.13$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.07450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed SK Nebula67c292.77$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1663447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed SK Nebula68c278$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.392630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecb6…f7c4backed Twisted Minds Orchid42c274.31$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed Twisted Minds Orchid39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.411850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed SK Nebula61c251.68$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.752040%8 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-42%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Twisted Minds Orchid43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.51,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6db…25c3backed SK Nebula41c243.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Twisted Minds Orchid43c241.84$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8517853.9%96 W · 82 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b88…0103backed SK Nebula62c231.42$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked SK Nebula44c219.78$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.597047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked SK Nebula47c212.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked Twisted Minds Orchid40c202.17$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1713043.1%56 W · 74 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked SK Nebula52c197$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8270043.7%306 W · 394 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b17…d36dbacked SK Nebula64c193.75$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c5c…1cf7backed SK Nebula68c186$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed Twisted Minds Orchid39c181.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4923733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d26…f4f8backed Twisted Minds Orchid50c180.59$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9912335.8%44 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4281…1a5abacked SK Nebula59c167.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed SK Nebula49c163.65$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6181134.9%283 W · 528 L-60.9wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed SK Nebula68c161$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4846347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999d…a1e1backed SK Nebula68c160$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.850%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked SK Nebula47c159.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.791,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b3c…9f22backed Twisted Minds Orchid40c159.41$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4112149.6%60 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid37c158$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.581850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed SK Nebula68c156.82$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.641838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfd1…cd25backed Twisted Minds Orchid39c153.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.845851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed SK Nebula46c152.23$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5216144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked SK Nebula47c150.42$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1290733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed SK Nebula65c148.19$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.276454.7%35 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked SK Nebula62c141.37$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6519551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed SK Nebula77c140$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.819656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed SK Nebula63c135.24$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.68349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf4…e669backed Twisted Minds Orchid37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.141861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Twisted Minds Orchid38c123.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.6813148.1%63 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked SK Nebula65c121$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.656946.4%32 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Twisted Minds Orchid39c120.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9146326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked SK Nebula57c119.89$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3422440.2%90 W · 134 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Twisted Minds Orchid50c119.48$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8335331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xacf2…d024backed Twisted Minds Orchid44c117.73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.732937.9%11 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Twisted Minds Orchid52c117.58$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.114254.9%78 W · 64 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked SK Nebula48c117$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8630835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Twisted Minds Orchid44c112.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5496245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked SK Nebula43c111.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.521,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed SK Nebula68c110.52$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3766650.8%338 W · 328 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked SK Nebula52c109.48$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.021,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Twisted Minds Orchid54c107.15$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2338…27f6backed Twisted Minds Orchid38c104.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0713243.2%57 W · 75 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32e9…39a0backed Twisted Minds Orchid40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed SK Nebula58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5822346.6%104 W · 119 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed SK Nebula66c99.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6611258%65 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed SK Nebula55c98.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.415048%24 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked SK Nebula37c97.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1828743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9133…20acbacked Twisted Minds Orchid53c94.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.722030%6 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-39.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Twisted Minds Orchid33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.913638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked SK Nebula68c86.54$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8520051.5%103 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4255…1792backed SK Nebula50c83.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8516041.9%67 W · 93 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Twisted Minds Orchid37c81.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.083336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed SK Nebula54c79.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Twisted Minds Orchid65c73.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8749255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed SK Nebula65c70$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6513446.3%62 W · 72 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Twisted Minds Orchid33c66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2233753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed SK Nebula64c61.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2127145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Twisted Minds Orchid54c60.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7312261.5%75 W · 47 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe577…6d01backed SK Nebula57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed SK Nebula68c58.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.976952.2%36 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked SK Nebula64c56.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2160154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc62f…2958backed Twisted Minds Orchid64c56$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.164961.2%30 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed SK Nebula64c55.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.593834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed SK Nebula60c55$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid55c54.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7677744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed SK Nebula67c53.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0519040%76 W · 114 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x085f…7a21backed Twisted Minds Orchid36c53.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.935846.6%27 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…ba78backed SK Nebula57c52.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed Twisted Minds Orchid36c52.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.532060%12 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.