Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x667806826f6ad9d64acf9da99e472a37a87aa66fa30a57ebcc5083b2244cef48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twisted Minds Orchidof SK Nebula, Twisted Minds Orchid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1ed…b819backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 34c | 1,200$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.95 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked SK Nebula | 68c | 548.6$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.58 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked SK Nebula | 64c | 369.36$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.18 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked SK Nebula | 61c | 264.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…4eecbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 31c | 261.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.99 | 176 | 42.6%75 W · 101 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SK Nebula | 66c | 249.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 37c | 220$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9f80backed SK Nebula | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SK Nebula | 72c | 199.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked SK Nebula | 69c | 197.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked SK Nebula | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed SK Nebula | 66c | 145.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed SK Nebula | 62c | 122.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 353 | 31.2%110 W · 243 L | -29.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked SK Nebula | 51c | 113.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…5f6bbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 36c | 112.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…1044backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 26c | 76.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 29c | 69.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 22c | 68.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked SK Nebula | 64c | 66.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed SK Nebula | 66c | 59.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 23c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 509 | 44.6%227 W · 282 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 43c | 55.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…dbcbbacked SK Nebula | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 203 | 47.3%96 W · 107 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked SK Nebula | 69c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed SK Nebula | 72c | 29.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked SK Nebula | 66c | 25.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked SK Nebula | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed SK Nebula | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked SK Nebula | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked SK Nebula | 62c | 22.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…cca8backed SK Nebula | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group StageTwisted Minds Orchid won
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid - Map 1 WinnerTwisted Minds Orchid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.