Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87affe756bffd64150ef5f954df6b7f0135fb12fad06685083a3b8a42223dc62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twisted Minds Orchidof SK Nebula, Twisted Minds Orchid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1ed…b819backed SK Nebula | 33c | 2,162$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.39 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed SK Nebula | 38c | 902.76$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.58 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed SK Nebula | 70c | 898.84$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 39c | 788.79$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.94 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SK Nebula | 16c | 432.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 50c | 407.42$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.51 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 76c | 260.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 44c | 234$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.72 | 443 | 42%186 W · 257 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 60c | 224$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…eb8ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 47c | 161$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 281 | 43.4%122 W · 159 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked SK Nebula | 51c | 137.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 33c | 107.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 69c | 105.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 396 | 46%182 W · 214 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 51c | 98.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 49c | 89.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 509 | 44.6%227 W · 282 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6db…25c3backed SK Nebula | 30c | 83.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 46c | 82.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 279 | 56.6%158 W · 121 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 50c | 66.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 69c | 62.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 353 | 31.2%110 W · 243 L | -29.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed SK Nebula | 38c | 62.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…4748backed SK Nebula | 41c | 40.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…340bbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 77c | 40.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed SK Nebula | 58c | 39.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed SK Nebula | 54c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 321 | 57.6%185 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Twisted Minds Orchid | 51c | 23.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed Twisted Minds Orchid | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed SK Nebula | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Group StageTwisted Minds Orchid won
- Valorant: SK Nebula vs Twisted Minds Orchid - Map 2 WinnerTwisted Minds Orchid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.