Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c3c40fcd114a19d92a37474039a8d6efaa97ba99c81de504501f84607854fa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 50c | 44,909$22,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,418.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 34c | 22,056$7,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,490.74 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Over | 50c | 16,582$8,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,291 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 15,755$8,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,092.91 | 825 | 42.4%350 W · 475 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 61c | 9,848$5,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.34 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…21b9backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 2,942$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.68 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 78c | 2,677$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.84 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712e…0485backed Over | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed Over | 50c | 2,136$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…d211backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 51c | 1,450$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.48 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 1,135$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.51 | 735 | 38.6%284 W · 451 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 51c | 1,013$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.2 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…be6fbacked Under | 50c | 1,001$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…b67dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 49c | 999.81$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.91 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Over | 51c | 555.54$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.21 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 51c | 457.51$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.18 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…1f1cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 66c | 165.29$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 37c | 142.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 50c | 124.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 26c | 119.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 66c | 107.58$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 236 | 60.2%142 W · 94 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 192 | 56.8%109 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f65…ec56backed Over | 50c | 96.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 63c | 91.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 313 | 59.7%187 W · 126 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Over | 67c | 84.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 50c | 76.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Under | 49c | 74.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 73c | 63.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 58c | 61.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 65c | 60.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Over | 50c | 59.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 47c | 53.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 76c | 52.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe057…c942backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 75c | 42.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 75c | 42.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9570…17c0backed Over | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 73c | 34.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 692 | 52.3%362 W · 330 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd083…6d8cbacked Under | 49c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 48c | 28.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…131dbacked Under | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 51c | 23.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 51c | 23.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Over | 61c | 22.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Over | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…b9f8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Over | 75c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.