Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x837bb4ddd65c49b655d5bc5f78ec8d4b8982b40c7d482bba8fc76e13cba556d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fagiano Okayamaof Cerezo Ōsaka, Fagiano Okayama
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 26c | 5,227$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fagiano Okayama | 67c | 4,556$3,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.68 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 27c | 2,034$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Fagiano Okayama | 75c | 1,639$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.87 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 24c | 1,018$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.9 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Cerezo Ōsaka | 23c | 407.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Fagiano Okayama | 68c | 252.62$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Fagiano Okayama | 73c | 200.25$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Fagiano Okayama | 68c | 168.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…db88backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Fagiano Okayama | 69c | 121.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Fagiano Okayama | 67c | 121.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Fagiano Okayama | 67c | 121.19$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Fagiano Okayama | 70c | 117.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 23c | 109.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Fagiano Okayama | 69c | 98.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Fagiano Okayama | 77c | 53.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Fagiano Okayama | 68c | 52.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cerezo Ōsaka | 23c | 49.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Fagiano Okayama | 79c | 38.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Fagiano Okayama | 78c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 63 | 82.5%52 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…9be0backed Fagiano Okayama | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Fagiano Okayama | 69c | 30.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Fagiano Okayama | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Fagiano Okayama | 72c | 24.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Fagiano Okayama | 64c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Fagiano Okayama | 67c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Fagiano Okayama | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.