Asian League · resolved market
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1590ce1b710eaef8b75b54f57a5e026a918c62ca88a02cc6561024488dd3ae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 9,645$3,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,810.29 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 8,926$5,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,717.13 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 42c | 3,815$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.29 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 80c | 2,402$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.64 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 13c | 2,106$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.84 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 1,042$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.62 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 58c | 456.07$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.89 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 58c | 456.05$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 59c | 418.15$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 58c | 268.62$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 58c | 256.46$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 58c | 245.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 62c | 189.75$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Under | 53c | 169.13$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 150.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Over | 15c | 104.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 52c | 96.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 58c | 92.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 53c | 82.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 14c | 76.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 29c | 71.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Over | 22c | 67.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 53c | 52.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Under | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 57c | 31.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Under | 59c | 24.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 70c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5this page
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5Over won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Cerezo Ōsaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.