Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x339bd830458e554d33603c771133450ec605772037637e0ca4ca2394228ed0a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ced…0feebacked Over | 55c | 1,821$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 799 | 55.2%441 W · 358 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…767cbacked Over | 53c | 1,081$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 637 | 46.5%296 W · 341 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.99 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Under | 43c | 988$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 61c | 928.8$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.66 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Under | 48c | 630$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 75c | 521.06$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 384 | 54.2%208 W · 176 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Under | 48c | 500.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.51 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…2624backed Under | 44c | 404.55$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.65 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Over | 56c | 295.69$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 972 | 48.8%474 W · 498 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Over | 30c | 249.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 43c | 224.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.63 | 443 | 42.9%190 W · 253 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 36c | 173.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 248 | 32.3%80 W · 168 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Under | 47c | 146$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 258 | 40.3%104 W · 154 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…fc1abacked Under | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Under | 42c | 111$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 150 | 31.3%47 W · 103 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed Over | 48c | 108.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…734fbacked Over | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d1…c0dabacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 90.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 1,398 | 49.4%691 W · 707 L | -20.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 61c | 85.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 2,608 | 39.7%1,035 W · 1,573 L | -84.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…1cf3backed Over | 63c | 79.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Under | 41c | 76.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 373 | 43.4%162 W · 211 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 634 | 46.4%294 W · 340 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Team WE won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team WE won
- Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)Top Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group AscendTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.