TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Top Esports, Team WE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,177,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,413,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,177,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 636 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Team WE38c128,059$49,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,128.6922451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Team WE24c29,437$7,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,190.8925546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Team WE29c25,739$7,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,458.3881143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed Top Esports67c24,975$16,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,315.7214360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Top Esports62c20,786$12,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,812.367760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed Top Esports72c20,540$14,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,735.147156.3%40 W · 31 L-9.1wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-17.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1320…6ba1backed Team WE0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Top Esports70c20,000$13,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,049.971,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked Top Esports63c18,891$11,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,083.3221968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked Top Esports72c17,274$12,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,781.3367553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Team WE25c16,516$4,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,085.2532150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Top Esports65c16,469$10,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,801.3753750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Top Esports67c15,200$10,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,08142149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Top Esports69c14,522$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,521.7416258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Team WE31c13,962$4,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,328.1420546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Top Esports70c13,407$9,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.1557957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Top Esports69c13,336$9,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,184.6867276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Team WE34c13,161$4,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,463.8638235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ebd…b66abacked Top Esports62c12,933$7,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,939.484564.4%29 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x747a…766dbacked Team WE43c12,507$5,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,328.93520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-64.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Top Esports54c10,525$5,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,861.281,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c7…f0a7backed Top Esports65c10,520$6,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,652.2713061.5%80 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9044…ea1abacked Top Esports70c10,236$7,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,087.147853.8%42 W · 36 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team WE30c10,006$3,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.8830945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe700…dc26backed Team WE1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100412.4%1 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Top Esports69c9,884$6,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,064.0590348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Team WE16c9,381$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.3934536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Top Esports63c9,083$5,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,40451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked Top Esports53c9,000$4,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,234.998933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe16e…bd58backed Team WE23c8,973$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.6116043.1%69 W · 91 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Top Esports79c8,900$7,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8531376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Team WE33c8,790$2,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.648045%36 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Top Esports69c7,777$5,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.861,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8c…6452backed Top Esports74c7,528$5,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.757582.7%62 W · 13 L+18.1wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+34.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team WE33c7,174$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.7647533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed Team WE37c6,859$2,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,559.2830546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…bb53backed Top Esports75c6,616$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.993275%24 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+25.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team WE28c6,611$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,847.061,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked Team WE39c6,602$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,606.8925944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9897…6b8ebacked Top Esports66c6,288$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.772661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Team WE34c5,882$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Top Esports72c5,530$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.8123672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Top Esports66c5,251$3,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,785.4711140.5%45 W · 66 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team WE34c5,161$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.073,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Team WE47c5,106$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team WE31c4,650$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.6626549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Team WE48c4,589$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.9558259.5%346 W · 236 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed Top Esports60c4,275$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.177143.7%31 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team WE1c4,256$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.421,58743.8%695 W · 892 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed Top Esports73c4,110$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.7951348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x269c…264abacked Top Esports74c4,011$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.835276.9%40 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Team WE50c3,985$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00028847.9%138 W · 150 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Top Esports65c3,847$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.317349.3%36 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Top Esports62c3,831$2,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.542,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Top Esports64c3,786$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.7446050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked Top Esports72c3,649$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.0917953.1%95 W · 84 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Team WE14c3,571$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015033.3%50 W · 100 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Team WE35c3,515$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.392638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ac…9722backed Team WE25c3,502$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.839944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed Top Esports79c3,500$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73011247.3%53 W · 59 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Team WE58c3,448$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00021056.7%119 W · 91 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed Top Esports66c3,410$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.1317448.3%84 W · 90 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Team WE37c3,373$1,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.841,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Team WE44c3,333$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.5151044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Top Esports57c3,330$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.0989347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc6f…6c5cbacked Team WE31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015443.5%67 W · 87 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Team WE30c3,222$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.685836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Top Esports64c3,150$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.4497427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Team WE31c3,104$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.3611838.1%45 W · 73 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb93…e1d3backed Top Esports71c3,000$2,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86010546.7%49 W · 56 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Team WE1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed Top Esports50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50011940.3%48 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a23…3253backed Team WE49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47010557.1%60 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Team WE49c2,985$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.0621861%133 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed Team WE20c2,958$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.0541347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Team WE45c2,889$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30045148.1%217 W · 234 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked Team WE30c2,764$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.891533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Team WE41c2,667$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.477431.1%23 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Top Esports50c2,598$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.272,22237.4%832 W · 1,390 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Team WE49c2,573$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.1962158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked Top Esports70c2,506$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.813530.4%41 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c7…ba3ebacked Top Esports75c2,500$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.4233069.7%230 W · 100 L+28.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed Top Esports69c2,470$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.815153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3090…be73backed Team WE35c2,469$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.9814851.4%76 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Top Esports66c2,462$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.0121458.9%126 W · 88 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Top Esports62c2,397$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91170162.2%436 W · 265 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked Top Esports64c2,344$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.758055%44 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Team WE54c2,250$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.9932045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Top Esports67c2,233$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.122,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Top Esports71c2,150$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62882953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team WE32c2,067$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.2547838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Top Esports59c2,036$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.0289943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1f…00a7backed Top Esports67c2,010$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.758324.1%20 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Top Esports60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80046257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed Top Esports62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76044120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Top Esports70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60084050.1%421 W · 419 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed Team WE1c1,996$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.961175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed Team WE33c1,983$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.3852747.6%251 W · 276 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc38…3c4cbacked Team WE35c1,943$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.17757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Team WE31c1,935$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.