WNBA · resolved market
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3db5b2a30a819f6f2664d8ff31aa32cee7acdaf436d69221927b5aed6d6d29cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Over | 54c | 10,992$5,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,883.74 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 5,572$2,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,030.13 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 4,864$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,624.82 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 56c | 2,411$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 47c | 2,147$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 47c | 2,106$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 56c | 2,045$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.19 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 1,434$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.3 | 904 | 49.4%447 W · 457 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…d647backed Over | 53c | 1,067$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.74 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Over | 50c | 666.96$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.33 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 25c | 579.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 55c | 362.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 21c | 299.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 63c | 297.34$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 46c | 281.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 56c | 261.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 139 | 56.8%79 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Over | 60c | 248.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 234.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 53c | 207.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d18…2365backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -10.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 46c | 186.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 169.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…d6e9backed Under | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 80c | 157$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 46c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 44c | 136.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 59c | 131.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.24 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…eebfbacked Under | 79c | 126.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770f…ac44backed Under | 79c | 125.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Over | 56c | 116.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 43c | 96.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 41c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 23c | 63.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…ebe3backed Under | 45c | 61.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ae…61b5backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 54.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 761 | 42.7%325 W · 436 L | -19.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…7ee6backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Under | 65c | 46.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Under | 47c | 44.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 54c | 41.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…1ec0backed Under | 45c | 33.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Over | 55c | 27.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Under | 79c | 26.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Under | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6aa5backed Under | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Under | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.