WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c9d052d481f6e9e5eea4d218094bf12920a5da1e12c3a56ae8059afb3c970d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Phoenix Mercury, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 3,455$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.62 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 2,708$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 44c | 2,229$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.35 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 2,000$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Connecticut Sun | 40c | 1,352$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.53 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 1,094$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.57 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 934.4$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.47 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 773.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.26 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 546.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.78 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 309$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun | 44c | 302.9$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Phoenix Mercury | 70c | 269.65$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 260$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Connecticut Sun | 44c | 256$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Connecticut Sun | 11c | 249.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 235.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 209.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 205.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 199.46$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 189.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 74c | 185.93$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Connecticut Sun | 43c | 145.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 136.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Connecticut Sun | 45c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Connecticut Sun | 29c | 129.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Connecticut Sun | 35c | 129.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 108.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Connecticut Sun | 48c | 101.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 101.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 100.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 100.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Connecticut Sun | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Connecticut Sun | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 80.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Connecticut Sun | 45c | 67.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce3…316dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 46.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Connecticut Sun | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 43.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Phoenix Mercury | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 42.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3166backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 42.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 40.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 35.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Connecticut Sun | 52c | 34.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…d5afbacked Connecticut Sun | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…5cfebacked Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 26.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…86b1backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 24.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Phoenix Mercury | 64c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 252 | 46%116 W · 136 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)this page
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 163.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.